varying numbers for bulking - which is right?

[flashdance]

Hey guys - been reading the site for a while, and I've finally got enough free time to get very serious about putting on some muscle. I've been trying to pin down a number of daily calories to shoot for, and found a few different sources. My question is this: which source is right? They all give a different result. (For reference - I'm 6'1", 190, probably ~15% body fat)

EDIT: Forgot the conditioning. I lift 2x/week for about an hour, and do cardio 4x/week for about 30 min.

1) These very forums - the simple formula (mass x 22) yields 4180 calories/day.
2) This article (http://www.t-mag.com/articles/199ess.html), also found on the forums - going through the calculations, I come up with about 4600 calories/day.
3) fitday tells me I'm at 3583 calories/day for my basal/lifestyle/activities, so I'd shoot for about 4000/day.

Three different calculations, three different targets - and different enough to make me put on unwanted weight if I set the number too high. Any suggestions?

[ryuage]

start off at a set point and adjust according to how you are gaining weight.

[flashdance]

Thanks for the advice. That's what I've planned on doing, but I just wanted to make sure there wasn't maybe something I was missing, or if anyone had any input on which measurement seemed to be the most reliable. Guess I'll just use the scale.

[Paladyr]

I think it varies so much from person to person there really isn't a set in stone answer. I'd err on the side of MORE calories just so that you don't end up wasting your time and working out but not gaining any muscle.

[ryuage]

but then again to each their own.

[TheGimp]

There are too many variables to tell exactly, and those formulae are all just guidelines, hence the variation.

Sounds like you should try 4000ish for a week and see whether you gain/lose/maintain weight, and adjust them accordingly.