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mikej
08-24-2006, 01:09 PM
I have a quick question for the group, that hopefully won't sound crazy.

I'm 10 days into my very first ever bulk, which I plan to follow for 8 weeks no matter what. I've been weighing myself every morning and keeping track, but not freaking out at all about day-to-day fluctuations. I thought 10 days sounded like a good first set of data, so I plugged in my morning weigh-in numbers into Excel, created a line graph, and then calculated a linear trend line.

At the end of 8 weeks it puts me at 215. Like I said, I'm committed to finishing this bulk out, and it leaves two possibilities:

1. A linear trendline isn't accurate. In other words, you gain more weight at the beginning and then it slows down or tapers off.

2. I'm going to end up a 215 pound (probably fat) behemoth.

I've attached a screenshot of my little experiment. Please let me know what you think.

Thanks!

Mike

Eszekial
08-24-2006, 01:36 PM
There are so many variables, with so many variables of their own, that this type of analysis just seems completely absurd, asanine, and off the wall.

It does make quite a bit of common sense, however, to say that there is such a thing as diminishing returns. That's why we need steroids and recovery, periodization, etc etc. It's why nobody has squated 3000lbs yet and probably never will without the help of some seriously new technologies, drugs, healthcare.

I may be completey wrong, but that's just what I think. Please feel to flame/correct me if i'm off color.

KISS method would tell me that you are eating too many calories. I weight 200 and am near 6 pack lean, and I wouldn't eat more then 3200 calories for what I would consider a clean bulk. Maybe 3600 after i start MMA classes.

it sounds crazy.

mikej
08-24-2006, 01:48 PM
There are so many variables, with so many variables of their own, that this type of analysis just seems completely absurd, asanine, and off the wall.

...snip...

KISS method would tell me that you are eating too many calories. I weight 200 and am near 6 pack lean, and I wouldn't eat more then 3200 calories for what I would consider a clean bulk. Maybe 3600 after i start MMA classes.

it sounds crazy.

To be clear, I don't consider my little experiment to be scientific, at all. I had originally planned to gain 8-10 pounds in 8 weeks, and was trying to see if the numbers so far supported that as being feasible. I didn't feel like I was gaining weight very quickly so far, you know? The opposite ended up being true, looking at the trend line. So I was looking for someone to say something like one the following:

a. Yeah, it goes fast at the beginning and will slow down.
b. Hey, that's way too quick, fat ass, back off the calories.
c. It's way too early to tell, keep eating you fool!

Judging from your KISS comment you're in camp B.

russianwol
08-24-2006, 02:01 PM
I would say keep bulking for about 2 weeks total. That accumulation could just be extraca bowels :)

But it's very possible to start gaining fat fast - depends on your genetics. Get BF % measured - maybe every week if you want. Monitor that.

Paladyr
08-25-2006, 09:11 AM
Woh. I would say based on your sig you are gaining weight WAY too fast and are on a fast track to obesity lol. You may see your weight go up 1 lb after adding 300+ calories to your daily intake just because you have more food in your system, but if you are gaining over 4lbs per week on a bulk, you are eating WAY too much.

If you look at my journal, you can see what a bulk should look like in terms of weight gain (not that mine is perfect, but I'm 6 weeks into a bulk and I don't really have any extra visible fat, and am actually looking more lean):

http://www.fitday.com/WebFit/PublicJournals.html?Owner=Paladyr

mikej
08-25-2006, 09:55 AM
Woh. I would say based on your sig you are gaining weight WAY too fast and are on a fast track to obesity lol. You may see your weight go up 1 lb after adding 300+ calories to your daily intake just because you have more food in your system, but if you are gaining over 4lbs per week on a bulk, you are eating WAY too much.

If you look at my journal, you can see what a bulk should look like in terms of weight gain (not that mine is perfect, but I'm 6 weeks into a bulk and I don't really have any extra visible fat, and am actually looking more lean):

http://www.fitday.com/WebFit/PublicJournals.html?Owner=Paladyr

Sounds like you're in camp B too. (See above).

I will say that I'm not worried about 1 pound here and 1 pound there... all I have to do is look at something with salt in it and I'll gain 3-5 pounds overnight.

It's hard to know if two weeks of a bulk is long enough to consider an adjustment or not. My plan at this point is to continue through to Monday (the "official" 2 week mark) and if I'm still ballooning at this rate I'll ratchet it down by maybe 400-500 calories or so and see what that does.

Plus... although I was 187 the Wednesday before my bulk started, I "ramped up" my calories rather than jumping in with both feet, and was 191.6 when I "officially" started bulking. I'm rounding out my second week here at 196.6, which is only 5 pounds. Even if I gain another pound or two over the weekend when my diet isn't as strict I'll be up 6-7 pounds total. Is 3 pounds per week too much?

I mostly don't want to panic, adjust WAY down, and end up totally stalling myself for a week. <sigh> What to do? I'm focusing on October and November to "undo" whatever damage I do over the next 6 weeks or so... so in that regard I sorta have an attitude of wanting to overdoing it rather than selling myself short.

My wife and I have also cut WAY back on the running, quite suddenly, and I'll need to adjust food intake accordingly. If we get back into serious running I'll probably have to take it back up again. We'll see.

I'm just a neurotic wreck, aren't I?

Unreal
08-25-2006, 10:11 AM
I would just keep monitoring it. I've been on my cut diet for 3 days and I'm down over 5lbs, but I'm sure its 90% water weight. Just like cutting I'm sure there is big swings at first from the extra water/glycogen and waste in your body that wasn't there before.

Hockey66
08-25-2006, 12:20 PM
I always pack on ~10 lbs. quite quickly when I start bulking from water/glycogen stores. If you've started taking creatine recently that could do it too, I wouldn't worry too much about it.

mikej
08-25-2006, 01:50 PM
I always pack on ~10 lbs. quite quickly when I start bulking from water/glycogen stores. If you've started taking creatine recently that could do it too, I wouldn't worry too much about it.

I started taking creatine about a month ago. Is that "recently" ?

Paladyr
08-25-2006, 03:44 PM
I started taking creatine about a month ago. Is that "recently" ?

In my link I sent you, I started taking creatine the day I started bulking, and I didn't see more than 1-2lb of extra weight. After that, it was pretty much a steady and small increase in weight. I think I've been bulking for 6 weeks, and I've gained 10 lbs.

You mentioned that you cut out the running. If you were running a lot, then you probably could've started the bulk by eating the same amount of food, and just cutting out the running.

3lb per week is way too much IMO, but if you are okay with getting fat, who cares? :-P.

mikej
08-28-2006, 12:05 PM
In my link I sent you, I started taking creatine the day I started bulking, and I didn't see more than 1-2lb of extra weight. After that, it was pretty much a steady and small increase in weight. I think I've been bulking for 6 weeks, and I've gained 10 lbs.

You mentioned that you cut out the running. If you were running a lot, then you probably could've started the bulk by eating the same amount of food, and just cutting out the running.

3lb per week is way too much IMO, but if you are okay with getting fat, who cares? :-P.

I guess that answers that... only 0.2 pounds up this week. I'm not going to change a THING!