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Thread: Mission accomplished in Iraq

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    Mission accomplished in Iraq

    Four Western oil companies are close to signing oil contracts with the Iraqi government that will return them to the country for the first time in 36 years, the New York Times reported in its online edition.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/pressR...28996920080619

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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    **** YEAH!

    So, when are we going to invade the United States so that we can start drilling there again?
    'In order to alter the inertial mass of weights, you must become one with them, like a machine, the totality of your motion is as one'

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    Well this Solidifies troops being in Iraq for 100 years.

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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    This statement is very important:

    "The deals for the four companies will be service contracts, in which they are paid for their work rather than offered a license for Iraq's oil deposits."

    If they keep these deals these ways, then it will ensure the Iraqi people reap the wealth from their oil, not other countries. These oil companies are basically acting as drilling consultants.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zen View Post
    **** YEAH!

    So, when are we going to invade the United States so that we can start drilling there again?

    ^^^^^I dont think anyone is smart enough to see how much truth is in this statement .

    I will never forget Clinton near the beginning of his term saying something to the effect of " We need to develop alternative energy sources , if we start drilling here in the states it will be 10 years before we start seeing any oil from it , thats too late " .

    We are surrounded by morons . That was roughly 12 years ago .
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    Mission Accomplished is a load of BS.
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    Senior Member donraja's Avatar
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    Good news for me!

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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brawl View Post
    ^^^^^I dont think anyone is smart enough to see how much truth is in this statement .

    I will never forget Clinton near the beginning of his term saying something to the effect of " We need to develop alternative energy sources , if we start drilling here in the states it will be 10 years before we start seeing any oil from it , thats too late " .

    We are surrounded by morons . That was roughly 12 years ago .
    I don't mean to sound like a jerk, but I'm tired of people talking about the to drill more when we don't have numbers on the current demand and the current supply in comparison to their capacity.

    Drilling for more oil may or may not lower prices. If current suppliers are well below capacity the prices will stay current until demand goes down or new companies enter the market, increasing supply. At that point the prices may not go down very much if the current suppliers find it is still more profitable to lower supply, keeping the current profit margins.

    Where do we find supply, capacity, and demand numbers?
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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickyjune26 View Post
    Drilling for more oil may or may not lower prices.
    Then again, it MAY!

    I got an idea, can we try and FIND OUT?
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    I googled oil supply, demand, capacity and www.theoildrum.com was the first result. Someone else highly recommended this site, and I agree. It backs a lot of statements with facts and reports.

    http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3331

    In short, it believes we are not operating at a world capacity. The world market scaled back in production 18 months ago to see the effects on demand. Demand only mildly changed in Western (rich) countries.

    Since the problem is not with world capacity at this time, we need to seek to lower demand. Of course, that will only occur with sustained high prices.

    I'm searching that site some more to verify that problem is NOT with capacity, but with high demand being tested by lowered supply.
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    Also keep in mind that any drilling in the US will yeild oil that enters a world market. Unless the US keeps the oil to itself, it will enter the world market and pay the world market price. ...and unless the supply is so significant to change the world supply by a significant percentage, it will not change the price. On TOP of that, it sounds that if prices went down at all, demand would increase and prices would readjust and rise again.

    we really need to significantly increase supply or lower demand to fix this. The former is not going to be happening, so the latter will be the price-predictor.
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    I would say the Iraq War is one of the reasons the price of oil got so high in the first place.

    It takes a lot of oil to manufacture weapons and make tanks move.

    I'm fairly certain in a fair commodity market the price of all commodities is driven by the demand for the last commodity item produced. Sorry I know thats awkward, if you need further explanation I can provide it, but it might be awhile.
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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickyjune26 View Post
    Also keep in mind that any drilling in the US will yeild oil that enters a world market. Unless the US keeps the oil to itself, it will enter the world market and pay the world market price. .
    That's not true.

    Why is gas $4/gal here but twice as expensive in europe?

    The simple answer is the fact that we generate somewhere between 1/5 to 1/3 of our own oil. Europe generates less of their own oil supply as a whole, and because of that, they are at the mercy of suppliers. It's simple supply and demand.
    Demand for oil rarely fluctuates much (other than seasonal).
    Global supply affects global prices, but domestic supply affects domestic prices, which is why our prices are lower than Europe's prices.

    The odd thing is, you don't even have to consume all of your domestic production inside your own country for your domestic production to lower your own prices. It's the mere fact that foreign suppliers have to compete with your domestic suppliers that lowers your prices.

    It's not rocket science.
    Last edited by zen; 06-20-2008 at 09:33 AM.
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    Nejar, you are correct with the price economics.

    ...unfortunately, your opinion on the demand increase caused by the vehicles in the war is incorrect. See page 4, chart 12 of the monthly report
    http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/upl...ch_monthly.pdf

    Demand has risen in the countries by Iraq, but only by 1.5 million b/d in the last 6 years. Worldwide demand has only risen by about 2 million b/d over the last 6 years. This is a total of about 5% demand increase. No where near the % in price increase. If they were at 95% capacity and the 5% increase in demand made them go to or exceed 100% capacity, then yes, the price increase would significantly outpace the demand increase. ...but in this case, (see page 7), OPEC spare capacity is about 2.7 million b/d, so there is plenty of room for increased production.

    I still stand by the belief that the supply is caused by a test on the demand, to see how much the world will pay before demand significantly goes down.

    On another important note, this hurts developing countries who are not as wealthy as Western countries. Our gas consumption for the consumer is only about 4% of the avg holdhouse expenses. For developing countries it is a much, much higher percentage. MEaning that increased gas prices mean less food on the table. For us it means less entertainment.
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zen View Post
    That's not true.

    Why is gas $4/gal here but twice as expensive in europe?

    The simple answer is the fact that we generate somewhere between 1/5 to 1/3 of our own oil. Europe generates less of their own oil supply as a whole, and because of that, they are at the mercy of suppliers. It's simple supply and demand.
    Demand for oil rarely fluctuates much (other than seasonal).
    Global supply affects global prices, but domestic supply affects domestic prices, which is why our prices are lower than Europe's prices.

    The odd thing is, you don't even have to consume all of your domestic production inside your own country for your domestic production to lower your own prices. It's the mere fact that foreign suppliers have to compete with your domestic suppliers that lowers your prices.

    It's not rocket science.
    zen, you bring up some good points. I looked up US production in the June oil watch report and it showed that it is only in the 5 - 7 million b/d range. A few questions though...

    1. Why would a company that produced oil in the US sell it at a cheaper price to the US when they could sell it at a high rate in Europe? This tells me that maybe they have high taxes in Europe and that's what causes the high gas prices?
    2. Isn't oil more on a world market?

    I'm really not trying to argue, but rather pinpoint some facts.
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    on a side note, I noticed that Europe product has been going down over the last 6 years. We would want to find out why in order to determine how that effects their gas prices.

    What are the gasoline taxes in Europe?
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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickyjune26 View Post
    zen, you bring up some good points. I looked up US production in the June oil watch report and it showed that it is only in the 5 - 7 million b/d range. A few questions though...

    1. Why would a company that produced oil in the US sell it at a cheaper price to the US when they could sell it at a high rate in Europe? This tells me that maybe they have high taxes in Europe and that's what causes the high gas prices?
    2. Isn't oil more on a world market?

    I'm really not trying to argue, but rather pinpoint some facts.

    Good questions.
    My post obviously simplified things for the point of communicating basic economic concepts.
    Obviously things are more complicated.
    Things like transporting, storing, refining capacity, regulation on product type (gas formulas for ex.), geographic constraints, and commodities...brokering...and other market phenomenon.

    I don't claim to be an expert on all that.
    But the neuances that may affect some of the price phenomenon doesn't mean that the simple supply and demand economics isn't a primary phenomenon.
    Last edited by zen; 06-20-2008 at 09:57 AM.
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    You're exactly right.

    we'd have to find out exactly how much oil we have available to us, when it would be ready for production, how much production would occur ...and all these would determine whether or not it would even make a dent in the price we pay.
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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    I'm just sooooooooo tired of the politics.
    The democrats talk about bringing a lawsuit against he saudis because they refused increase production by half a million barrels per day, but they block ANWAR claiming that it's 16 Billion barrles of oil wont lower gas prices.

    Bush gets in the rose garden and bitches at the democrat congress to lift the ban on the offshore continental shelf drilling, but he wont lift the executive order banning that same thing.

    We need to throw ALL of the bums out of there.

    The oil in America belongs to american citizens, not american politicians.
    Last edited by zen; 06-20-2008 at 11:18 AM.
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    so is gas gonna be 2$ again?
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    GreenG mickyjune26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zen View Post
    I'm just sooooooooo tired of the politics.
    The democrats talk about bringing a lawsuit against he saudis because they refused increase production by half a million barrels per day, but they block ANWAR claiming that it's 16 Billion barrles of oil wont lower gas prices.

    Bush gets in the rose garden and bitches at the democrat congress to lift the ban on the offshore continental shelf drilling, but he wont lift the executive order banning that same thing.

    We need to throw ALL of the bums out of there.

    The oil in America belongs to american citizens, not american politicians.
    What's ANWAR? Google didn't help for my limited search. If we could increase production by simply 5 million b/d that would have to help prices.

    Quote Originally Posted by PHOENIX View Post
    so is gas gonna be 2$ again?
    The day production is increased by 5 million barrels a day and demand goes down by 5 million barrels a day!
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    mind/body zen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickyjune26 View Post
    What's ANWAR? Google didn't help for my limited search. If we could increase production by simply 5 million b/d that would have to help prices.
    LOL, sorry, I typed it phonetically.
    It is actually ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge)
    Last edited by zen; 06-20-2008 at 02:13 PM.
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