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Thread: Human average IQ to be 82 by 2100

  1. #1
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    Human average IQ to be 82 by 2100

    The dark blue line is the average IQ of the world. I've also plotted the population growth of the five most populous countries, India, China, the U.S., Indonesia, and Nigeria; the average IQ of each of these countries is in parenthesis. (Nigeria is currently ninth, with Brazil (87), Pakistan (81), Russia (96), and Bangladesh (81) intervening, but by 2050 it will be fifth.) As you can see, in a 100 year period the world's average IQ will have dropped from 92 to 86, a change of 6%. That is pretty darn significant. And all because of differential population growth.

    I extrapolated the population growth of each country another 50 years to the year 2100 (lightly shaded region of graph). At that time the world's average IQ will have dropped below 84. Within this time period of 150 years, extremely short by any evolutionary standard, an incredibly significant change in this key metric will have occurred. And there is no sign of the trend bottoming out, because the growth rate of countries with lower IQs exceeds the growth rate of countries with higher IQs. The most populous country today is China, which has a high IQ (100), but its growth is actually projected to be negative because of their "one child" policy. After about 2030 India will be the most populous country, and it has relatively low IQ (81). At current growth rates by 2100 Nigeria will be the third most populous country, and it has a low IQ (67).


    http://w-uh.com/articles/030831-IQ_and_populations.html

    If humans are separated from animals by our intellect, then it seems we're becoming less human.

    Ah...progress. Ain't it something?
    Last edited by The Zach; 08-19-2006 at 02:22 AM.

  2. #2
    Back in business WBBIRL's Avatar
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    So the results will be skewed becuase of popluation... not smarter people becoming dumber?

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    Power Fiend Skinny_DiezeL's Avatar
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    yyyyeeeeeeeeaaaaaa. Um, you have a lot of freetime, dont you?
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    by 2100 I will be dead, so I dont care.
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    Just so you know, these IQ tests are flawed. For example, in a lot of countries, only the bourgeoise and upperclass people get a chance to take these IQ tests.

  6. #6
    Back in business WBBIRL's Avatar
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    That and alot of the "IQ" information is taken from these online tests. I actually went and pushed the first answer for all of them and got like a 150 something... trying I was in the 140 something range.

    Online IQ tests are all garbage, every last one. Espically because if you wanted, you have google at your fingertips.

  7. #7
    Wrecker of Homes d'Anconia's Avatar
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    Um I was under the impression that IQ measured "aptitude" RELATIVE to other people and thus the average would always be 100 for the worldwide population (aka a regular bell curve).
    So if this is true then how exactly could the average drop?

    And even if the IQ average is dropping, civilization has still been progressing quickly after 1950 (when the curve starts and the IQ is dropping).
    Plus this only applies to your average person so how this would have negative side effects on most of us here is beyond me...
    Last edited by d'Anconia; 08-18-2006 at 11:11 PM.
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  8. #8
    Wrecker of Homes d'Anconia's Avatar
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    BTW learn how to quote properly. Your post makes it look as though you've done the work on web page.
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    Is cutting down to 9% Jordanbcool's Avatar
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    I thought you of all people would realize how flawed IQ tests are. If you ask me a bunch of random questions regarding ANY sort of math. I will flunk it.

    Thus my IQ would be low making me a moron.

    Or you could test me on something I know alot about, bodybuilding, history, condoms, UFC matches etc.

    So you have to ask yourself. Maybe its the tests that are flawed?

    P.S. I've taken a few sociology courses and the basic IQ test was discussed heavily in my class
    Last edited by Jordanbcool; 08-18-2006 at 11:16 PM.
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    Wrecker of Homes d'Anconia's Avatar
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    Cool I was looking at a Wikipedia article on IQ and they were saying that there is a negative correlation between IQ and "importance of religion" hahahhhaha so basically religious people tend to be stupider.
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    Canucks Fan Hockey66's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by d'Anconia
    Cool I was looking at a Wikipedia article on IQ and they were saying that there is a negative correlation between IQ and "importance of religion" hahahhhaha so basically religious people tend to be stupider.
    I'm a genius!
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    Senior Member Jorge Sanchez's Avatar
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    1) IQ tests are culturally biased. I'm not surprised that those countries would have a lower IQ, since IQ tests are geared towards the West.

    2) Look up the Flynn Effect.

    3) D'anconio is right, 100 is always the average score.

    4) Stop posting this sensationalist propaganda.
    Last edited by Jorge Sanchez; 08-19-2006 at 12:21 AM.
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    I'm a genius so i really don't care (and no, I'm not joking, lol)

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    DeaTH BeFoRe WeaKNeSs sCaRz*Of*PaiN's Avatar
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    I took one at a University and got 146. But I really don't think someone's IQ is relevant to real-world intelligence. There's different kinds of "smarts"...

    Just because someone isn't book smart doesn't make them any less intelligent.
    "The only easy day was yesterday."

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    Senior Member seK's Avatar
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    As a member of Mensa I believe this average is extremely too low. :P

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    Since the publication of "The Bell Curve," many commentators have offered
    opinions about human intelligence that misstate current scientific evidence.
    Some conclusions dismissed in the media as discredited are actually firmly
    supported.

    This statement outlines conclusions regarded as mainstream among researchers
    on intelligence, in particular, on the nature, origins, and practical
    consequences of individual and group differences in intelligence. Its aim is
    to promote more reasoned discussion of the vexing phenomenon that the
    research has revealed in recent decades. The following conclusions are fully
    described in the major textbooks, professional journals and encyclopedias in
    intelligence.

    The Meaning and Measurement of Intelligence

    1. Intelligence is a very general mental capability that, among other
    things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think
    abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from
    experience. It is not merely book learning, a narrow academic skill, or
    test-taking smarts. Rather, it reflects a broader and deeper capability
    for comprehending our surroundings--"catching on," "making sense" of
    things, or "figuring out" what to do.

    2. Intelligence, so defined, can be measured, and intelligence tests
    measure it well. They are among the most accurate (in technical terms,
    reliable and valid) of all psychological tests and assessments. They do
    not measure creativity, character personality, or other important
    differences among individuals, nor are they intended to.

    3. While there are different types of intelligence tests, they all measure
    the same intelligence. Some use words or numbers and require specific
    cultural knowledge (like vocabulary). Others do not, and instead use
    shapes or designs and require knowledge of only simple, universal
    concepts (many/few, open/closed, up/down).

    4. The spread of people along the IQ continuum, from low to high, can be
    represented well by the bell curve (in statistical jargon, the "normal
    curve"). Most people cluster around the average (IQ 100). Few are
    either very bright or very dull: About 3% of Americans score above IQ
    130 (often considered the threshold for "giftedness"), with about the
    same percentage below IQ 70 (IQ 70-75 often being considered the
    threshold for mental ******ation).

    5. Intelligence tests are not culturally biased against American blacks or
    other native-born, English-speaking peoples in the U.S. Rather, IQ
    scores predict equally accurately for all such Americans, regardless of
    race and social class. Individuals who do not understand English well
    can be given either a nonverbal test or one in their native language.

    6. The brain processes underlying intelligence are still little
    understood. Current research looks, for example, at speed of neural
    transmission, glucose (energy) uptake, and electrical activity of the
    brain, uptake, and electrical activity of the brain.

    Group Differences

    7. Members of all racial-ethnic groups can be found at every IQ level. The
    bell curves of different groups overlap considerably, but groups often
    differ in where their members tend to cluster along the IQ line. The
    bell curves for some groups (Jews and East Asians) are centered
    somewhat higher than for whites in general. Other groups (blacks and
    Hispanics) ale centered somewhat lower than non-Hispanic whites.

    8. The bell curve for whites is centered roughly around IQ 100; the bell
    curve for American blacks roughly around 85; and those for different
    subgroups of Hispanics roughly midway between those for whites and
    blacks. The evidence is less definitive for exactly where above IQ 100
    the bell curves for Jews and Asians are centered.

    Practical Importance

    9. IQ is strongly related, probably more so than any other single
    measurable human trait, to many important educational, occupational,
    economic, and social outcomes. Its relation to the welfare and
    performance of individuals is very strong in some arenas in life
    (education, military training), moderate but robust in others (social
    competence), and modest but consistent in others (law-abidingness).
    Whatever IQ tests measure, it is of great practical and social
    importance.

    10. A high IQ is an advantage in life because virtually all activities
    require some reasoning and decision-making. Conversely, a low IQ is
    often a disadvantage, especially in disorganized environments. Of
    course, a high IQ no more guarantees success than a low IQ guarantees
    failure in life. There are many exceptions, but the odds for success in
    our society greatly favor individuals with higher IQs.

    11. The practical advantages of having a higher IQ increase as life
    settings become more complex (novel, ambiguous, changing,
    unpredictable, or multifaceted). For example, a high IQ is generally
    necessary to perform well in highly complex or fluid jobs (the
    professions, management): it is a considerable advantage in moderately
    complex jobs (crafts, clerical and police work); but it provides less
    advantage in settings that require only routine decision making or
    simple problem solving (unskilled work).

    12. Differences in intelligence certainly are not the only factor affecting
    performance in education, training, and highly complex jobs (no one
    claims they are), but intelligence is often the most important. When
    individuals have already been selected for high (or low) intelligence
    and so do not differ as much in IQ, as in graduate school (or special
    education), other influences on performance loom larger in comparison.

    13. Certain personality traits, special talents, aptitudes, physical
    capabilities, experience, and the like are important (sometimes
    essential) for successful performance in many jobs, but they have
    narrower (or unknown) applicability or "transferability" across tasks
    and settings compared with general intelligence. Some scholars choose
    to refer to these other human traits as other "intelligences."

    Source and Stability of Within-Group Differences

    14. Individuals differ in intelligence due to differences in both their
    environments and genetic heritage. Heritability estimates range from
    0.4 to 0.8 (on a scale from 0 to 1), most thereby indicating that
    genetics plays a bigger role than does environment in creating IQ
    differences among individuals. (Heritability is the squared correlation
    of phenotype with genotype.) If all environments were to become equal
    for everyone, heritability would rise to 100% because all remaining
    differences in IQ would necessarily be genetic in origin.

    15. Members of the same family also tend to differ substantially in
    intelligence (by an average of about 12 IQ points) for both genetic and
    environmental reasons. They differ genetically because biological
    brothers and sisters share exactly half their genes with each parent
    and, on the average, only half with each other. They also differ in IQ
    because they experience different environments within the same family.

    16. That IQ may be highly heritable does not mean that it is not affected
    by the environment. Individuals are not born with fixed, unchangeable
    levels of intelligence (no one claims they are). IQs do gradually
    stabilize during childhood, however, and generally change little
    thereafter.

    17. Although the environment is important in creating IQ differences, we do
    not know yet how to manipulate it to raise low IQs permanently. Whether
    recent attempts show promise is still a matter of considerable
    scientific debate.

    18. Genetically caused differences are not necessarily irremediable
    (consider diabetes, poor vision, and phenal keton uria), nor are
    environmentally caused ones necessarily remediable (consider injuries,
    poisons, severe neglect, and some diseases). Both may be preventable to
    some extent.

    Source and Stability of Between-Group Differences

    19. There is no persuasive evidence that the IQ bell curves for different
    racial-ethnic groups are converging. Surveys in some years show that
    gaps in academic achievement have narrowed a bit for some races, ages,
    school subjects and skill levels, but this picture seems too mixed to
    reflect a general shift in IQ levels themselves.

    20. Racial-ethnic differences in IQ bell curves are essentially the same
    when youngsters leave high school as when they enter first grade.
    However, because bright youngsters learn faster than slow learners,
    these same IQ differences lead to growing disparities in amount learned
    as youngsters progress from grades one to 12. As large national surveys
    continue to show, black 17- year-olds perform, on the average, more
    like white 13-year-olds in reading, math, and science, with Hispanics
    in between.

    21. The reasons that blacks differ among themselves in intelligence appear
    to be basically the same as those for why whites (or Asians or
    Hispanics) differ among themselves. Both environment and genetic
    heredity are involved.

    22. There is no definitive answer to why IQ bell curves differ across
    racial-ethnic groups. The reasons for these IQ differences between
    groups may be markedly different from the reasons for why individuals
    differ among themselves within any particular group (whites or blacks
    or Asians). In fact, it is wrong to assume, as many do, that the reason
    why some individuals in a population have high IQs but others have low
    IQs must be the same reason why some populations contain more such high
    (or low) IQ individuals than others. Most experts believe that
    environment is important in pushing the bell curves apart, but that
    genetics could be involved too.

    23. Racial-ethnic differences are somewhat smaller but still substantial
    for individuals from the same socioeconomic backgrounds. To illustrate,
    black students from prosperous families tend to score higher in IQ than
    blacks from poor families, but they score no higher, on average, than
    whites from poor families.

    24. Almost all Americans who identify themselves as black have white
    ancestors-the white admixture is about 20%, on average--and many
    self-designated whites, Hispanics, and others likewise have mixed
    ancestry. Because research on intelligence relies on self-
    classification into distinct racial categories, as does most other
    social-science research, its findings likewise relate to some unclear
    mixture of social and biological distinctions among groups (no one
    claims otherwise).

    Implications for Social Policy

    25. The research findings neither dictate nor preclude any particular
    social policy, because they can never determine our goals. They can,
    however, help us estimate the likely success and side-effects of
    pursuing those goals via different means.

    The following professors-all experts in intelligence an allied fields-have
    signed this statement:

    Richard D. Arvey, University of Minnesota
    Thomas J. Bouchard, Jr., University of Minnesota
    John B. Carroll, U.N.C. at Chapel Hill
    Raymond B. Cattell, University of Hawaii
    David B. Cohen, U.T. at Austin
    Rene W. Dawis, University of Minnesota
    Douglas K. Detterman, Case Western Reserve U.
    Marvin Dunnette, University of Minnesota
    Hans Eysenck, University of London
    Jack Feldman, Georgia Institute of Technology
    Edwin A. Fleishman, George Mason University
    Grover C. Gilmore, Case Western Reserve U.
    Robert A. Gordon, Johns Hopkins University
    Linda S. Gottfredsen, University of Delaware
    Richard J. Haier, U.C. Irvine
    Garrett Hardin, U.C. Berkeley
    Robert Hogan, University of Tulsa
    Joseph M. Horn, U.T. at Austin
    Lloyd G. Humphreys, U.Ill. at Champaign-Urbana
    John E. Hunter, Michigan State University
    Seymour W. Itzkoff, Smith College
    Douglas N. Jackson, U. of Western Ontario
    James J. Jenkins, U. of South Florida
    Arthur R. Jensen, U.C. Berkeley
    Alan S. Kaufman, University of Alabama
    Nadeen L. Kaufman, Cal. School of Prof. Pshch., S.D.
    Timothy Z. Keith, Alfred University
    Nadine Lambert, U.C. Berkeley
    John C. Loehlin, U.T. at Austin
    David Lubinski, Iowa State University
    David T. Lykken, University of Minnesota
    Richard Lynn, University of Ulster at Coleraine
    Paul E. Meehl, University of Minnesota
    R. Travis Osborne, University of Georgia
    Robert Perloff, University of Pittsburg
    Robert Plomin, Institute of Psychiatry, London
    Cecil R. Reynolds Texas A&M University
    David C. Rowe University of Arizona
    J. Philippe Rushton U. of Western Ontario
    Vincent Sarich, U.C. Berkeley
    Sandra Scarr, University of Virginia
    Frank L. Schmidt University of Iowa
    Lyle F. Schoenfeldt, Texas A&M University
    James C. Sharf, George Washington University
    Julian C. Stanley, Johns Hopkins University
    Del Theissen, U.T. at Austin
    Lee A. Thompson, Case Western Reserve U.
    Robert M. Thorndike, Western Washington University
    Philip Anthony Vernon, U. of Western Ontario
    Lee Willerman, U.T. at Austin
    http://www.mugu.com/cgi-bin/Upstream...ell-curve.html

    Here you go, wise guys.

  17. #17
    Not Done Yet ShockBoxer's Avatar
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    IQ tests are bull****. Let me tell you a long winded story that you don't have to believe in the slightest because this is 'teh internets' where everyone benches 500 raw and has a Stephen Hawking class IQ. And also their wangs are porno-star huge.

    I'm the 'dumbest' mensa tested male in my immediate family. I'm 151, my father is 156, my brother is 168. This ******ed system has been a measuring stick of my father's side of the family since the early 50s. My grandfather was in the mid 150s, you see, and he was a tyrant in every sense placing an incredible amount of importance in being smarter than the 'common folk' basically. All of his sons and daughters were tested, and all of their children, and as I understand it a third generation is being heavily weighed by their results.

    My family is ****ed up but my dad broke ties with them. My brother did the test of his own free will.

    I've been a straight C student my entire life as a form of rebellion against these ridiculous judgements. They weren't going to let me into college at first... I had to take an aptitude test. The test results and reaction were funny, to me: A councillor looking at my high school transcript (straight Cs, grade 11 three times), the results of the test, the transcript, the test, the transcript, my NSAT score (99% percentile), the test.

    In college I barely cracked a book and ended up with a 96% average. My grandmother was so pleased that she paid for part of my schooling and kept going on about how proud my grandfather would have been. I repaid her kindness by landing and stagnating in a 10 buck an hour computer support job, unable to repay her. She hasn't spoken to me since.

    Am I brilliant? **** no... I punch walls to psyche myself up: How bright could I be?

    Want to know the only IQ test I respect? Living long enough to die of old age.
    Last edited by ShockBoxer; 08-19-2006 at 05:30 AM.
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  18. #18
    Wrecker of Homes d'Anconia's Avatar
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    The Zach first you say the IQ average is decreasing but then you quote a source saying that basically the average is around 100...
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  19. #19
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    IQ don't mean shyt. A teacher of mine says she has seen some of the dumbest kids at HIGH IQS, yet the brilliant ones could be in the 90s or the 100s its not how much you but how yuo use it.

    BTW my IQ stated by the state of GA is 137 or 127 I can't remember heh, a kid in my school is like 160 or so and by looking at him the only thing he got riding for him is his brain no social skills, no common sense, could put him in a room full or doors and he couldn't figure out which one to use.
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    "It is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves beneath the flag, and whose coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protester to burn the flag."

  20. #20
    II MrWebb78's Avatar
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    anyone who depends on google to provide reliable information is silly.
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  21. #21
    Senior Member Jorge Sanchez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Zach
    I'm really not sure who that post was directed to, but it doesn't even come close to addressing any of the issues I raised. In fact, I would say that it supports the cultural bias inherent in IQ tests.

    All you did was provide a (biased) source explaining IQ tests. I'm not sure what you're trying to get at by suggesting that the world average IQ is falling. Whatever it is, your evidence is extremely misleading and you obviously have no real grasp on the concept of IQ tests.
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  22. #22
    !!! TTT's Avatar
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    I don't like the way that article's written. It doesn't look formal.

    But it was still an interesting thing to bring up, thanks for sharing.

  23. #23
    Is cutting down to 9% Jordanbcool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sCaRz*Of*PaiN
    I took one at a University and got 146. But I really don't think someone's IQ is relevant to real-world intelligence. There's different kinds of "smarts"...

    Just because someone isn't book smart doesn't make them any less intelligent.
    And thus the basic flaw of IQ tests.
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  24. #24
    Not Done Yet ShockBoxer's Avatar
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    Dying of old age... I swear it's the most reliable IQ test there is. Well, perhaps more accurate if ammended to dying of natural causes.
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  25. #25
    Son of Krypton Majestic's Avatar
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    I scored a 33 on the Wonderlic (Form B), a few months ago. I believe it's the same silly test they administer to NFL players at the Combine. How Vince Young only got a 6 is beyond me. He must be illiterate.

    I think I just misspelled "Wonderlic". Oh, well.

    A friend of my father's gave me a bunch of tests, actually. I'm trying to figure out which direction I want to take professionally (I'd like to change professions), so I spent a few hours with this woman, which wasn't a big deal.

    I think she gave me better advice regarding relationships as opposed to careers, actually. "Partners don't appreciate too much unsolicited advice".
    "We could put his leg in a vice-grip, but you & I together couldn't twist his ankle enough to sprain it"
    - Jerry Glanville discussing Barry Sanders

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